One week out, election forecasts show a coin-flip race for the presidency and control of both chambers of Congress. That’s why for the last two weeks, we’ve focused on electing Kamala and giving her a Blue Senate.
Incumbents & Dem-Held Seats
- Rep. Mary Peltola, AK-AL: After sitting comfortably in the Lean D column for most of this year, this month both Sabato and Cook shifted this race to Toss Up. Unlike in 2022, Republicans have managed to unite around one candidate, moderate Nick Begich.
- Rep. Yadira Caraveo, CO-8: This seat has been a Toss Up for two years. In 2022, Yadira won it by less than a point, 48.4 to 47.7 percent.
- Kristen McDonald Rivet, MI-8: This is an R+1 seat vacated by incumbent Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee that will be a pickup for Democratic women if Kristen wins.
- Rep. Susan Wild, PA-7: Susan won with 51 percent in 2022, but the district only went to President Biden by 0.6 percentage points in 2020.
- Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, WA-3: This seat was a surprise Democratic upset in 2022, when the margin was a razor-thin 50.1 to 49.3. Marie is facing a rematch against Joe Kent, a retired special forces officer.
Flippable Seats
- Kirsten Engel, AZ-6: Kirsten is a former state Senator who lost to incumbent Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani by 1 point last cycle. She’s challenging him again in this district that lies mostly within the Tucson metro area.
- Christina Bohannan, IA-1: Cook has shifted this race from Likely R to Toss Up since early September. Something is happening in the suburbs of Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, and we’re here for it!
- Laura Gillen, NY-4: This D+5 district is held by freshman Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito. Laura is a former Hempstead town supervisor who came within three points of holding this seat for Democrats last cycle.
- Janelle Bynum, OR-5: This seat was won by the Republican by only 2 points in 2022—but went to President Biden by 10 points in 2020. If elected, Janelle would be the first Black person to serve Oregon in Congress.
- Janelle Stelson, PA-10: Voters in this district re-elected Republican Rep. Scott Perry and voted for Donald Trump by 4 points in 2020. But Cook has shifted this race from Lean R to Toss Up since late summer, so a sea change could be underway.
Let’s flip the House next week: Chip in $5 or more to each of these women in Toss Up races.