Whether you plan to stay glued to the TV all night, or you need to dip in and out for sanity’s sake, we have you covered on what to pay attention to and when.
The bottom line: Tune in around 7 pm for early results in a handful of counties that can give clues to how the electorate is behaving. Then tune out the noise until a little after 9 pm or so—that’s the real power hour by which 80 percent of states will have fully closed their polls.
See the full analysis on our website or read on for a briefer summary.
Bellwether Counties by Poll Closing Time
Times listed are in Eastern Standard Time.
6 PM: Hamilton County, Indiana
- This is a rapidly growing suburb that swung toward Dems by 14 points in 2020.
- If Trump is winning by 7 (his 2020 margin) or more, expect a squeaker.
- If Kamala cuts that margin or is winning, have some optimism for the rest of the night.
7 PM: Fayette County, Georgia
- This is metro Atlanta, specifically the growing southern suburbs.
- It’s swung toward Dems by 24 points, from R+31 for Romney to R+7 for Trump.
- If Kamala cuts that margin, again, have optimism for the rest of the night.
7:30 PM: Nash County, North Carolina
- This is ex-urban Raleigh, made up of racially diverse former factory towns.
- Biden won by a fraction of a point here in 2020.
- If Kamala is keeping it close too, that’s a great sign.
See all eight bellwether counties and full analysis on our website.
Races We’re Watching by Poll Closing Time
Some parts of these states may close polls earlier because they are divided between two time zones. Times listed are in Eastern Standard Time and indicate the latest, final poll closing times.
8 PM: Pennsylvania
- Presidential Battleground
- Flip, Woman Gain: Ashley Ehasz, US House-1
- Hold: Susan Wild, US House PA-7
- Flip, Woman Gain: Janelle Stelson, US House PA-10
9 PM: Arizona
- Presidential Battleground
- Hold, Woman Gain: Yassamin Ansari, US House-3
- Flip, Woman Gain: Kirsten Engel, US House-7
- Abortion Ballot Initiative
- Projected Female Legislative Majority
9 PM: Michigan
- Presidential Battleground
- Hold: Elissa Slotkin, US Senate
- Hold: Supreme Court Justice Kyra Harris Bolden
- Flip, Woman Gain: Callie Barr, US House-1
- Hold: Hillary Scholten, US House-3
- Hold, Woman Flip: Kristen McDonald Rivet, US House-8
- Hold: Democratic State House Majority
See the full list of states and competitive races on our website.
When We’ll Have Results
Hopefully we’ll see two big presidential battleground states—Arizona and North Carolina—declare early, since they start counting absentee ballots before Election Day. There are also three smaller states with competitive down-ballot races—Colorado, Montana and Nebraska—that count pretty speedily. And then there’s Florida, which counts fast and can tell us a bit about demographics, but not much else. Virginia also counts fast, has large suburbs and several competitive House races.
Three other presidential and Congressional battleground states—Georgia, Michigan and Ohio—also start counting mail ballots on or before Election Day, so that should speed things up. But then there’s Pennsylvania, likely to be the tipping point state and one of the slowest counting states in the country, since they can’t count mail ballots until after Election Day.
The bottom line: Take all of this advice with a grain of salt and have patience. In 2020, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remained uncalled the Wednesday after, though a Biden win was looking imminent based on vote tallies.