It’s still early in the cycle, but never too soon to ask the critical question: Will we gain or lose women in Congress in 2026? With this week’s special election in AZ-7 set to send one new woman to Congress, we’re starting the cycle on an auspicious note.

First, a look at the Senate, where there are 26 women (16 Democrats). Even if Democratic women win three open seats where they’re currently contenders for the nomination—Minnesota, Michigan and Illinois—we will only net one new woman. That’s because two women in safe seats (Minnesota and New Hampshire) are leaving, but a man is the likely nominee in New Hampshire. Michigan would be the only net gain. 

Women overall could also lose representation if a Democratic man wins against Maine’s Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Plus, Iowa’s Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is generating potential retirement buzz. Hopefully, a Democratic woman can run and win in these races, allowing us to flip seats and add to our column. We’re rooting for term-limited Maine Gov. Janet Mills to throw her hat in, and while no woman has announced yet in Iowa there’s still plenty of time. And we’re keeping an eye on Alaska. Note that the nominee for the flippable open seat in North Carolina is also likely to be a man. 

Things look better in the House, where there are 125 women (94 Democrats). Women are top contenders for the nomination in all flippable toss up seats (according to the Cook Political Report), so we could end up with as many as 133 women—103 Democrats and 30 Republicans. Even if women win half of toss up seats, we could end up with 98 Democrats and 30 or 31 Republicans.

Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-2) is the only female Republican in a toss up seat, and she’ll likely face a Democratic woman. No Republican women in safe seats are retiring.

We are also not seeing a risk of huge losses from retirements or incumbent vulnerabilities. Only four of 10 toss up incumbent seats are held by women. And while there are three women leaving Congress (MN-2, MI-11 and NJ-11) who are likely to be replaced with men, three other Democratic seats held by men (AZ-7, NH-1 and TX-18) are already or likely to be filled by women. The three open Illinois seats are still in flux but there are female frontrunners in all three.

The bottom line: Even in a good year, Democratic women are—so far—looking at smaller gains than we saw in the last midterm. Start working now to help make sure 2026 is a good year by giving to our 2026 Most Competitive slate.

As candidate announcements and retirements continue to unfold, we’ll continue to update on the outlook for women. Count on us to keep the count. 

Thank you, 

The WomenCount team

PS—Second quarter fundraising reports were officially due to the FEC on Tuesday. We’re still looking through those and will have some analysis for you next week, as well as a fresh look at the most competitive congressional races.