Updated August 29, 2024
General election analyses are organized by primary date. Click here for primary election analysis.
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March 5
CA-3, Likely R, Flip: Jessica Morse, the former deputy secretary at the California Natural Resources Agency, won the Democratic primary to challenge incumbent Rep. Kevin Kiley in November. This is only an R+4 district, so we should see this rating move toward Democrats as the race develops.
CA-12, Solid D, Open: BART Director Lateefah Simon won the primary and is the favorite to retain this safe Democratic seat that Rep. Barbara Lee vacated to run for US Senate, so this Black woman-held seat will likely stay that way.
CA-16, Solid D, Open: Palo Alto City Council member Julie Lythcott-Haims fell short in the primary—where she was the only female candidate in a field of 11—for this safe Democratic seat vacated by Rep. Anna Eshoo, so we are likely to see a Democratic man win it in November.
CA-22, Solid D, Flip: Former state Assemblymember Rudy Salas will face Republican Rep. David Valadeo in this toss up district, despite a strong primary challenge from State Sen. Melissa Hurtado.
CA-29, Solid D, Open: State Assemblymember Luz Rivas won the primary for this safe Democratic seat being vacated by Rep. Tony Cardenas, meaning women are likely to pick this seat up in November.
CA-30, Solid D, Open: State Assemblymember Laura Friedman won the primary in this safe Democratic seat vacated by Rep. Adam Schiff, making this another pick up for women in California’s Congressional delegation.
CA-31, Solid D, Open: Former Rep. Gil Cisneros is the likely next occupant of this seat vacated by Rep. Grace Napolitano, after both qualified women, state Sen. Susan Rubio and Mary Ann Lutz, fell short in the primary.
CA-40, Likely R, Flip: Former president of the Orange County Firefighters Union Joe Kerr looks likely to win the primary and take on Rep. Young Kim, in a primary many observers thought would go to Tustin Unified School District Board Member Allyson Damikolas.
CA-45, Lean R, Flip: Garden Grove City Councilor Kim Nguyen-Penaloza and Derek Tran are in a close race to come in second in the primary, and then hopefully flip this district—currently held by Rep. Michelle Steele—in November.
CA-47, Lean D, Open: State Sen. Dave Min came out ahead of Joanna Weiss in this seat vacated by Rep. Katie Porter, making it another loss for women in California’s Congressional delegation.
TX-8, Solid R, Challenger: Laura Jones won the primary in this long-shot district to take on incumbent Republican Rep. Morgan Luttrell in November.
TX-15, Likely R, Challenger: Democrat Michelle Vallejo will again face Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, who defeated her in 2022. But Senate dynamics—Sen. Ted Cruz is facing his most formidable Democratic challenger in years in Rep. Colin Allred—could shake things up in this.
TX-18, Solid D, Challenge: Incumbent Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, who re-entered this race after losing her bid for Houston mayor, will retain this seat after a hard race against Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards.
TX-32, Solid D, Open: State Rep. Julie Johnson won the primary for this seat being vacated by Rep. Colin Allred, who is running for US Senate. It’s a safe Democratic seat, meaning she’s likely going to Congress in November.
TX-38, Solid R, Challenger: Melissa McDonough won the primary to take on incumbent Republican Rep. Wesley Hunt in November, in another long-shot race for Democrats.
March 19
OH-9, Tossup, Incumbent: Marcy Kaptur is the longest-serving woman in Congress and the second longest-serving woman in congressional history—and we’d like to keep that record going. Her official Republican challenger will be Trump-backed state Rep. Derek Merrin.
OH-13, Tossup, Incumbent: Emilia Sykes held this district—vacated by Tim Ryan when he ran for US Senate—for Democrats last year 52.7 to 47.3 percent, though its current Cook rating is R+1. Her official Republican challenger is former Ohio state senator and businessman, Kevin Coughlin.
April 23
PA-01, Likely Republican, Challenger: Ashley Ehasz, a retired Army pilot who did tours of duty in Kuwait and Iraq, is the nominee in this suburban Philly district held by Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who beat her by 9 points in 2022. During this presidential election year, in a district President Biden won by 5 percent, she has a better chance at flipping it. If she does, she would be the first female member of Congress to have graduated from the US Military Academy at West Point.
PA-07, Toss-Up, Incumbent: Rep. Susan Wild is again on the list of most at-risk Democratic members being targeted by both sides. She squeaked by with a 51 percent win in 2022, but this being a presidential year may make not make the race easier—the district only went to President Biden by 0.6 percentage points in 2020. Her opponent will be state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie.
PA-10, Lean Republican, Challenger: Former local news anchor Janelle Stelson won the primary to face incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Perry in this Harrisburg-centered district Donald Trump won by 4 percent in 2020.
PA-12, Solid D, Incumbent: Freshman Democratic Rep. Summer Lee survived a primary challenge stemming from her early criticisms of Israel’s war conduct. She won 61 percent of the vote in this safe Democratic district that is not likely to be competitive in the fall.
May 14
MD-03, Safe D, Open: State Sen. Sarah Elfreth won this primary, with 35 percent of the vote, to fill the open seat of retiring Democratic Rep. John Sarbanes. She and Harry Dunn, the U.S. Capitol Police officer known for defending it during the January 6 Capitol attack, were the frontrunners in a crowded field of 22 candidates. She will face attorney Robert J. Steinberger in the general election.
MD-06, Likely D, Open: Former Deputy Administrator of the National Telecommunications and Information Administration April McClain-Delaney won this primary to replace retiring Rep. David Trone, who unsuccessfully ran for US Senate. This is the only competitive seat in Maryland’s House delegation. Partisan registrations in the district, which makes up most of western Maryland, are evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, but it has reliably voted for Democrats in presidential years. Anne will face former Del. Neil Parrott in the general election.
May 21
OR-03, Safe D, Open: State Rep. Maxine Dexter won this primary and is a shoo-in to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Earl Blumenauer. Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal—who is the sister of US Rep. Pramila Jayapal—was the runner up.
OR-04, Likely D, Incumbent: Freshman Rep. Val Hoyle is the favorite to maintain Democratic control of this seat, though that could change now that her opponent is determined. Retired US Air Force colonel Monique DeSpain won the primary. She has styled herself as a moderate conservative and is expected to hit Val on drug legalization and homelessness, two perennial topics of contention in the Pacific Northwest.
OR-05, Toss-Up, Challenger: Oregon State Rep. Janelle Bynum is the nominee for this seat that went red by only 2 points in 2022—but went to President Biden by 10 points in 2020. She’s hoping to take out freshman Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer. If elected, Janelle would be the first Black person to serve Oregon in Congress.
OR-06, Lean D, Incumbent: Freshman Rep. Andrea Salinas will again face logistics consultant Mike Erickson, who was the Republican nominee for this district in 2022. Andrea won with 50 percent of the vote, helped by a right-wing spoiler candidate, meaning that although she’s the favorite now, this race is likely to be a nail-biter.
June 4
IA-01, Likely R, Challenger: Christina Bohannan is a former state representative who was the nominee for this district in 2022, when she lost narrowly to Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks. She is again the nominee this time around, setting up a rematch.
MT-01, Likely R, Challenger: Monica Tranel was the nominee for this district in 2022 but came up short by only 3 points, the closest a Democrat has ever come to winning a Congressional seat in Montana. She is also again nominee this year, setting up another rematch with sitting Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke.
NJ-7, Toss-Up, Challenger: Former executive director of the New Jersey Working Families Party Sue Altman is the nominee to challenge freshman incumbent Republican Rep. Thomas Kean Jr., who narrowly flipped this seat in 2022 51 to 48 percent.
June 11
NV-1, Lean D, Incumbent: Challenging incumbent Democratic Rep. Dina Titus will again be retired U.S. Army colonel Mark Robertson, who lost to her by 5 points in 2022.
NV-3, Lean D, Incumbent: Incumbent Democratic Rep. Susie Lee will face Drew Johnson, a marketing consultant who has won the endorsement of the current governor.
June 18
VA-02, Lean R, Challenger: Missy Cotter Smasal, a US Navy veteran, won the primary and will now have a chance to win back this coastal district formerly held by Rep. Elaine Luria, and now held by Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans. This is the most competitive seat in the Virginia delegation.
VA-7 & VA-10, Lean D, Open: Unfortunately, women did not fare well in Virginia’s other competitive primaries, meaning this year we will officially see all of the seats women flipped in 2018 turned over either to Democratic men or Republicans. Former deputy legal advisor to the U.S. National Security Council Yevgeny Vindman won the VA-7 primary to replace Rep. Abigail Spanberger, even though three viable women—Prince William County Supervisor Margaret Franklin, former state Delegate Elizabeth Guzmán, and current Delegate Briana Sewell—competed. In VA-10, Virginia state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam—who was endorsed by resigning Rep. Jennifer Wexton—beat both former Rep. Eileen Filler-Corn and current state Sen. Jennifer Boysko.
June 25
CO-8, Toss-Up, Incumbent: Yadira won this seat in 2022 by less than a point, 48.4 to 47.7 percent. Her general election opponent will be Colorado state Rep. Gabe Evans, a veteran and former police officer who has touted his MAGA cred. He has been endorsed by Trump.
NY-1, Likely R, Challenger: Nancy Goroff, a chemistry professor at Stony Brook University, lost this primary to John Avlon, a former television personality for CNN and co-founder of the centrist group No Labels. He will face incumbent Republican Rep. Nick LaLota, who won 55 percent of the vote in 2022, though President Biden won the district in 2020.
NY-4, Toss-Up, Challenger: Laura Gillen is the official Democratic nominee in this D+5 district held by freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito. Laura is a former Hempstead town supervisor who ran and came within three points of beating him last cycle. Unfortunately, women did not fare well in New York’s Democratic primaries, meaning she will be the only Democratic woman challenging a competitive, Republican-held New York seat.
NY-22, Toss-Up, Challenger: DeWitt town board member and US Air Force veteran Sarah Klee Hood lost this primary to John Mannion, a state senator from New York’s 50th district. He will face freshman incumbent Republican Rep. Brandon Williams in the fall.
July 30
AZ-01, Toss-Up, Challenger: It looks like the only woman in this race, Marlene Galán-Woods, will finish in the top three in a close race, but unfortunately fall short of the top spot to challenge incumbent Republican Rep. David Schweikert.
AZ-03, Safe D, Open: Yassamin Ansari, a former diplomat and District 7 representative on the Phoenix City Council, and Raquel Terán, the former chair of the Arizona Democratic Party and Arizona Senate minority leader, are squaring off to put a woman in this seat being vacated by Rep. Ruben Gallego, who is running for US Senate. Early returns had Yassamin leading. This primary is likely heading to a recount, as both are tied at 45 percent.
AZ-06, Toss-Up, Challenger: Kirsten Engel is a former state senator who lost to incumbent Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani by 1 point last cycle. She’s the nominee again this cycle. This district lies mostly within the Tucson metro area and is a top target of the DCCC.
August 6
KS-03, Likely D, Incumbent: Re-election contests for Rep. Sharice David have gotten less nail-biting since she flipped this seat in 2018 (she beat her opponent in 2022 by 12 points). But this will still be a closely watched race, as Trump’s name on the ballot could drive Republican turnout in Overland Park and the Kansas City exurbs.
MI-01, Likely R, Challenger: Teacher and lawyer Callie Barr defeated Marquette County medical director Bob Lorinser in the Democratic primary, and will now take on Republican Rep. Jack Bergman in November. Callie is endorsed by our partner Vote Mama.
MI-03, Likely D, Incumbent: Freshman Rep. Hillary Scholten flipped this seat in 2022, helped along by 1) Republicans nominating MAGA candidate John Gibbs in the primary; and 2) redistricting that incorporated more of urban Western Michigan. But considering she is only the second Democrat to represent MI-03, we’ll still be watching it closely.
MI-08, Toss Up, Open: State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet won the primary for this R+1 seat being vacated by incumbent Rep. Dan Kildee, who has endorsed Kristen to fill this seat. Kristen is endorsed by our partner Vote Mama. This seat leans Democratic and is a likely pick up for Democratic women. Her Republican general election opponent will be Paul Junge, a former FOX 47 news anchor, former external affairs director at ICE.
MI-10, Lean R, Challenger: The three women running—gun reform activist Emily Busch, small business owner Diane Young state board of education member Tiffany Tilley fell short in the primary to Macomb County Prosecuting Attorney Carl Marlinga. He will face Republican Rep. John James in this Lean R seat.
MO-1, Safe D, Incumbent: Democratic Rep. Cori Bush lost the primary to Wesley Bell, the chief prosecutor for St. Louis County, making this safe-Democratic seat a loss for women.
WA-03, Toss-Up, Incumbent: Freshman Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who flipped this seat in a surprise upset in 2022, is one of the most at-risk incumbent Democrats. The margin two years ago was a razor-thin 50.1 to 49.3; she will face a rematch against Joe Kent, a retired special forces officer.
WA-05, Lean R, Open: Former diplomat and prosecutor Carmela Conroy, having racked up endorsements from Spokane Mayor Lisa Brown, the AFL-CIO and the National Education Association, easily won the Democratic primary for the competitive seat being vacated by Republican Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers. Her Republican opponent will be former state senator Michael Baumgartner.
WA-06, Lean D, Hold: State senator Emily Randall won the primary for this likely Democratic seat being vacated by Democratic Rep. Derek Kilmer, in what is a likely pickup for women in the general election. Her Republican opponent will be Washington state senator Drew MacEwen.
August 13
MN-3, Solid D, Open: Former state Sen. Kelly Morrison is the Democratic nominee to hold this likely Democratic seat being vacated by former Democratic presidential candidate Dean Phillips, meaning this is a likely flip for women.
WI-3, Lean R, Challenger: Former Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation board member Rebecca Cooke will challenge incumbent freshman Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden. Rebecca ran for this seat in 2022 but lost in the primary. Cook rates it R+4.
WI-8, Likely R, Challenger: OB/GYN Dr. Kristin Lyerly is the nominee for this seat being vacated by Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher. She’s been endorsed by Gov. Tony Evers and the abortion rights organization Reproductive Freedom for All.
August 20
AK-At Large, Likely D, Incumbent: Freshman Rep. Mary Peltola will face another competitive general election. Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom dropped out of the race after finishing third in the primary, so this will be a two-way race with Nick Begich III, who finished in third place for this seat in 2022.
FL-13, Likely Republican, Challenger: Former director of communications and marketing for the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority Whitney Fox is the Democratic nominee to challenge freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna.
FL-27, Likely Republican, Challenger: Miami-Dade County Public Schools Board member Lucia Báez-Geller will take on Rep. María Elvira Salazar in November. She received an endorsement from US Senate candidate former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.