Whether you plan to stay glued to the TV on Election Night, or you need to dip in and out for sanity’s sake, we have you covered.
Our advice? Tune in for results in a handful of early-closing counties that can give clues to how the electorate is behaving. Then tune out the noise until 9 pm ET or so—the real power hour by which 80 percent of states will have fully closed their polls.
Election Night Bellwether Counties by Poll Closing Time
Times listed are in Eastern Standard Time.
6 PM: Hamilton County, Indiana
- This is a rapidly growing suburb that swung toward Dems by 14 points in 2020.
- The state is seeing the most competitive gubernatorial race since 2012.
- The gov nominee, a former teacher, is centering her campaign on abortion.
- If Trump is winning by 7 (his 2020 margin) or more, expect a squeaker.
- If Kamala cuts that margin or is winning, have some optimism for the rest of the night.
6 PM: Vigo County, Indiana
- It was formerly a perennial bellwether, but went for Trump in 2020.
- It can tell us if there is a surge of low-propensity voters toward Trump.
- Its mid-size population center, Terre Haute, could give clues to urban turnout.
7 PM: Baldwin County, Georgia
- This is a central Georgia, not metro Atlanta, county with a large Black population.
- The area is a mix of small, rural and college towns.
- And it’s getting more Republican, going from D+1.7 to D+1.3 in the last two cycles.
- If Kamala can’t match or exceed Biden’s vote share, that’s a danger sign.
7 PM: Fayette County, Georgia
- This *is* metro Atlanta, specifically the growing southern suburbs.
- Like many suburbs, it’s trending more diverse and more college educated.
- It’s swung toward Dems by 24 points, from R+31 for Romney to R+7 for Trump.
- If Kamala cuts that margin, again, have optimism for the rest of the night.
7 PM: Miami-Dade & Pinellas Counties, Florida
- Florida is probably out of reach for the presidency, but worth watching early.
- We’ll get to see if the abortion ballot initiative is driving Dem turnout.
- Most of the Latino population in these counties is of Cuban origin and trending Republican.
- There are long-shot Dem House flips in FL-13 (Pinellas) and FL-27 (Miami-Dade)
7 PM: Osceola County, Florida
- It’s a south-side suburban/exurban part of the Orlando metro area.
- It’s become more Republican in the last two election cycles.
- And was critical to helping both Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. Ron DeSantis get re-elected.
- But most of the Latino population is Puerto Rican, a group that could break for Democrats.
7 PM: Virginia Beach, Virginia
- It’s not technically a county, but an independent city with county equivalence.
- It’s part of the second-largest metro area in the state.
- It’s the center of a pivotal swing district, VA-2 (Missy Cotter Smasal, Dem Flip).
7:30 PM: Nash County, North Carolina
- This is ex-urban Raleigh, made up of racially diverse former factory towns.
- Biden won by a fraction of a point here in 2020.
- But it went Republican in 2022 by 7 points.
- Another dogfight here is actually great news for Dems.
- Plus, there’s a competitive House race in NC-1 (Rep. Don Davis, Dem Hold).
7:30 PM: Cabarrus County, North Carolina
- This is another rapidly growing and diversifying suburb (Charlotte).
- It swung toward Dems by 11 points from 2016 to 2020.
- If Trump is leading by less than 5 points, that’s a good sign.
Key Races We’re Watching by Poll Closing Time
Some parts of these states may close polls earlier on Election Night because they are divided between two time zones. Times listed are in Eastern Standard Time and indicate the latest, final poll closing times.
7 PM: Indiana
- Flip, Woman Gain: Jennifer McCormick, Governor
- Weaken GOP Legislative Majority
7 PM: Georgia
- Presidential Battleground
- Weaken GOP Legislative Majority
7 PM: Virginia
- Flip: Missy Cotter Smasal, US House-2
7:30 PM: North Carolina
- Presidential Battleground
- Flip, Woman Gain: Rachel Hunt, Lieutenant Governor
- Hold: Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs
7:30 PM: Ohio
- Hold: Marcy Kaptur, US House-9
- Hold: Emilia Sykes, US House-13
- Weaken GOP Legislative Majority
8 PM: New Hampshire
- Flip, Woman Gain: Joyce Craig, Governor
- Hold, Maggie Goodlander, US House-2
8 PM: Pennsylvania
- Presidential Battleground
- Flip, Woman Gain: Ashley Ehasz, US House-1
- Hold: Susan Wild, US House-7
- Flip, Woman Gain: Janelle Stelson, US House-10
- Hold: Summer Lee, US House-12
8 PM: Connecticut
- Hold: Jahana Hayes, US House-5
8 PM: Delaware
- Woman Gain: Lisa Blunt Rochester, US Senate
- Sarah McBride, US House At-Large
8 PM: Florida
- Flip, Woman Gain: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, US Senate
- Flip: Whitney Fox, US House-13
- Flip: Lucia Báez-Geller, US House-27
- Abortion Ballot Initiative
8 PM: New Jersey
- Flip, Woman Gain: Sue Altman, US House-7
- Hold, Woman Gain: Nellie Pou, US House-9
8 PM: Maryland
- Woman Gain: Angela Alsobrooks, US Senate
- Hold, Woman Gain: Sarah Elfreth, US House-3
- Hold, Woman Gain: April McClain Delaney, US House-6
- Abortion Ballot Initiative
8 PM: Tennessee
- Flip: Gloria Johnson, US Senate
- Weaken GOP Legislative Majority
9 PM: Arizona
- Presidential Battleground
- Hold, Woman Gain: Yassamin Ansari, US House-3
- Flip, Woman Gain: Kirsten Engel, US House-7
- Abortion Ballot Initiative
- Possible Female Legislative Majority
9 PM: Kansas
- Hold: Sharice Davids, US House-3
9 PM: Minnesota
- Hold: Angie Craig, US House-2
- Hold, Woman Gain: Kelly Morrison, US House-3
9 PM: New Mexico
- Attempt at Female Legislative Majority
9 PM: Colorado
- Hold: Yadira Caraveo, US House-8
- Abortion Ballot Initiative
- Possible Female Legislative Majority
9 PM: Michigan
- Presidential Battleground
- Hold: Elissa Slotkin, US Senate
- Hold: Supreme Court Justice Kyra Harris Bolden
- Flip, Woman Gain: Callie Barr, US House-1
- Hold: Hillary Scholten, US House-3
- Hold, Woman Flip: Kristen McDonald Rivet, US House-8
- Hold Democratic State House Majority
9 PM: New York
- Flip, Woman Gain: Laura Gillen, US House-4
- Abortion Ballot Initiative
9 PM: Wisconsin
- Presidential Battleground
- Hold: Tammy Baldwin, US Senate
- Flip, Woman Gain: Rebecca Cooke, US House-3
- Flip, Woman Gain: Kristin Lyerly, US House-8
- Attempt to Gain Dem Legislative Majority
9 PM: Iowa
- Flip: Christina Bohannan, US House-1
9 PM: Nebraska
- Presidential Battleground (NE-2)
- Abortion Ballot Initiative
9 PM: Texas
- Flip, Woman Gain: Laura Jones, US House-8
- Flip: Michelle Vallejo, US House-15
- Hold, Woman Gain: Julie Johnson, US House-32
- Flip, Woman Gain: Melissa McDonough, US House-38
10 PM: Montana
- Flip, Woman Gain: Monica Tranel, US House-1
- Abortion Ballot Initiative
10 PM: Nevada
- Presidential Battleground
- Hold: Jacky Rosen, US Senate
- Hold: Dina Titus, US House-1
- Hold: Susie Lee, US House-3
- Abortion Ballot Initiative
- Hold Democratic Legislative Majority & Possible Gender Parity
11 PM: California
- Flip, Woman Gain: Jessica Morse, US House-3
- Hold: Lateefah Simon, US House-12
- Hold, Woman Gain: Luz Maria Rivas, US House-29
- Hold, Woman Gain: Laura Friedman, US House-30
11 PM: Oregon
- Hold, Woman Gain: Maxine Dexter, US House-3
- Hold: Val Hoyle, US House-4
- Flip: Janelle Bynum, US House-5
- Hold: Andrea Salinas, US House-6
- Hold Dem Legislative Majority & Possible Gender Parity
11 PM: Washington
- Hold: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, US-House 3
- Flip: Carmela Conroy, US House-5
- Hold, Woman Gain: Emily Randall, US House-6
- Hold: Kim Schrier, US House-8
- Hold Dem Legislative Majority & Possible Gender Parity
1 AM: Alaska
- Hold: Mary Peltola, US House-At Large
ℹ️ Read more about each race on our Tracking the 2024 House Elections blog post.
When We’ll Have Results
What We’ll Know on Election Night
There are actually a lot of states where we’ll have a good read by midnight Tuesday since vote-by-mail ballot counting starts before Election Day, and most of the Election Day vote is expected to be counted right after polls close.
You’ll see two big presidential battleground states on this list—Arizona and North Carolina—and three smaller states—Colorado, Montana and Nebraska—that have key House and Senate races. There’s also Florida, which counts fast and will tell us a lot about the demographics of the electorate. Plus there is a competitive US Senate race and two House races featuring women there, as well as the most-watched abortion ballot measure in the country. Virginia also counts fast, has large suburbs and several competitive House races.
🔖 Politico has a great Election Night dashboard, including vote share tracker, that you can bookmark.
What We’ll Know the Next Day
Three big, important states—Georgia, Michigan and Ohio—start counting mail ballots on or before Election Day, so that should speed things up on Election Night.
Two states—Georgia and Michigan—are presidential battlegrounds. Michigan has a key US Senate race and two competitive House races, as well as competitive state legislative races. Ohio also has two key US House races featuring women. However, the mail ballot receipt date in Ohio is one week from Election Day, which might complicate things in a tight race.
What Might Take A While
Pennsylvania, this year’s presidential tipping point state that also features three close US House races and several close state legislative races, can’t count mail ballots until after Election Day. Though the party split in early voting is expected to be smaller than in 2020, that voting will still favor Democrats. It will be close, so expect to wait.
Most of the other big states also take their time. We’ll again be waiting on California, New Jersey and New York, where there are 13 competitive districts Democrats are hoping to flip. Thankfully, none of these are competitive in the presidential election.
Remember to take all of this with a grain of salt and have patience. In 2020, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remained uncalled on Election Night and the Wednesday after, though a Biden win was looking imminent based on vote tallies.