Updated June 26, 2024

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These are the primary races to watch this year that have implications for both women’s representation and Democrats taking control of the House:

July 30

AZ-01, Toss-Up, Challenger: Marlene Galán-Woods is the only woman in this primary. She’s leading in endorsements but hasn’t been able to match the men’s spending. Arizona is a top presidential and Senate target where we should prioritize women down-ballot. The primary is July 30.

AZ-06, Toss-Up, Challenger: Kirsten Engel is a former state senator who lost to incumbent Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani by 1 point last cycle. She’s the presumptive nominee again this cycle. This district lies mostly within the Tucson metro area.

August 6

KS-03, Likely D, Incumbent: Re-election contests for Rep. Sharice David have gotten less nail-biting since she flipped this seat in 2018 (she beat her opponent in 2022 by 12 points). But this will still be a closely watched race, as Trump’s name on the ballot could drive Republican turnout in Overland Park and the Kansas City exurbs.

MI-03, Likely D, Incumbent: Freshman Rep. Hillary Scholten flipped this seat in 2022, helped along by 1) Republicans nominating MAGA candidate John Gibbs in the primary; and 2) redistricting that incorporated more of urban Western Michigan. But considering she is only the second Democrat to represent MI-03, we’ll still be watching it closely.

MI-08, Toss Up, Open: State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet is the frontrunner for this R+1 seat whose primary also includes Michigan Board of Education President Pamela Pugh. This Democrat seat is being vacated by incumbent Rep. Dan Kildee.

MI-10, Lean R, Challenger: Gun reform activist Emily Busch has been endorsed by every major national gun safety group. Small business owner Diane Young is matching her in fundraising. And Tiffany Tilley is a member of the state’s Board of Education. But all three women are lagging the leading man, Macomb County Prosecuting Attorney Carl Marlinga, in fundraising and polling for this primary to take on Republican Rep. John James in this Lean R seat.

WA-03, Toss-Up, Incumbent: Freshman Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who flipped this seat in a surprise upset in 2022, is one of the most at-risk incumbent Democrats. The margin two years ago was a razor-thin 50.1 to 49.3; she will likely face a rematch against Joe Kent, a retired special forces officer.

WA-06, Lean D, Hold: Two women are running for this seated being vacated by Democratic Rep. Derek Kilmer, so as long as Democrats hold it, a woman will flip it. Of the two Democrats running, state senator Emily Randall has raised only two-thirds of what former Commissioner of Public Lands, Hilary Franz, has raised. Unfortunately, this is a top-two primary where two Republicans are also running, and at least one is likely to make it into the general.

August 13

WI-3, Lean R, Challenger: Former Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation board member Rebecca Cooke is battling state Assemblywoman Katrina Shankland to challenge incumbent freshman Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden. Rebecca ran for this seat in 2022 but lost in the primary. Cook rates it R+4.