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Your Guide to the Most Competitive Races

Updated June 12, 2024

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These are the primary races to watch this year that have implications for both women’s representation and Democrats taking control of the House:

June 18

VA-02, Lean R, Challenger: Missy Cotter Smasal is a US Navy veteran and our best chance at winning back this coastal district formerly held by Rep. Elaine Luria, and now held by Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans.

VA-7, Lean D, Open: Prince William County Supervisor Margaret Franklin, former state Delegate Elizabeth Guzmán, and current Delegate Briana Sewell are all viable in this crowded race to replace Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who’s running for governor. However, former deputy legal advisor to the U.S. National Security Council Yevgeny Vindman is beating them all in fundraising and endorsements, meaning this is another woman-held seat we risk losing.

VA-10, Lean D, Open: Former Rep. (and Virginia’s first female House Speaker) Eileen Filler-Corn is the leading women among more than a dozen candidates running to replace retiring US Rep. Jennifer Wexton.

June 25

NY-4, Toss-Up, Challenger: Laura Gillen is the presumptive Democratic nominee in this D+5 district held by freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito. Laura is a former Hempstead town supervisor who ran and came within three points of beating him last cycle.

NY-22, Toss-Up, Challenger: Sarah Klee Hood is a DeWitt town board member and US Air Force veteran who narrowly lost the primary for this upstate district last cycle. Her main opponent is John Mannion, a state senator from New York’s 50th district. The winner will face freshman incumbent Republican Rep. Brandon Williams in the fall.

July 30

AZ-01, Toss-Up, Challenger: Marlene Galán-Woods is the only woman in this primary. She’s leading in endorsements but hasn’t been able to match the mens’ spending. Arizona is a top presidential and Senate target where we should prioritize women down-ballot. The primary is July 30.

AZ-06, Toss-Up, Challenger: Kirsten Engel is a former state senator who lost to incumbent Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani by 1 point last cycle. She’s the presumptive nominee again this cycle. This district lies mostly within the Tucson metro area.

August 6

MI-08, Toss Up, Open: State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet is the frontrunner for this R+1 seat whose primary also includes Michigan Board of Education President Pamela Pugh. This Democrat seat is being vacated by incumbent Rep. Dan Kildee.

MI-10, Lean R, Challenger: Gun reform activist Emily Busch has been endorsed by every major national gun safety group. Small business owner Diane Young is matching her in fundraising. And Tiffany Tilley is a member of the state’s Board of Education. But all three women are lagging the leading man, Macomb County Prosecuting Attorney Carl Marlinga, in fundraising and polling for this primary to take on Republican Rep. John James in this Lean R seat.

WA-06, Lean D, Hold: Two women are running for this seated being vacated by Democratic Rep. Derek Kilmer, so as long as Democrats hold it, a woman will flip it. Of the two Democrats running, state senator Emily Randall has raised only two-thirds of what former Commissioner of Public Lands, Hilary Franz, has raised. Unfortunately, this is a top-two primary where two Republicans are also running, and at least one is likely to make it into the general.

August 13

WI-3, Lean R, Challenger: Former Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation board member Rebecca Cooke is battling state Assemblywoman Katrina Shankland to challenge incumbent freshman Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden. Rebecca ran for this seat in 2022 but lost in the primary. Cook rates it R+4.

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